Moody’s forecasts faster growth of Russian in next 5 years

MOSCOW, Oct 7 (PRIME) -- The growth of the Russian economy will pick up in the next five, international rating agency Moody’s said in a research note seen by PRIME late on October 4.

Though the agency worsened its outlook for the growth of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 1.2% from 1.6%, it still expects the economy to grow faster in the next five years than in the previous five years, when it suffered from a double shock – worsening of trade conditions and introduction of international sanctions, the agency said.

The sanctions will remain in the foreseeable future, and new restrictions may even be imposed, but the accumulated financial buffer, low demand for debt, and a comprehensive government policy should make Russia resilient. The internal political risks connected to stresses for the economy and state finances are moderate, while external political risk is seen as ‘very low+’, Moody’s said.

The agency also expects lending in Russia to grow 10% in 2019 and 9% in 2020 mainly thanks to retail loans. Demand for corporate loans will remain low due to slow economic growth. Lending started growing in 2017 after a 7% contraction in 2016 mainly due to retail loans as well, which grew 12.8% in 2017 and 22.4% in 2018, Moody’s said.

The anti-Russian sanctions will have a limited impact on large state-controlled banks as their main source of financing are deposits of domestic clients, the research note read.

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